Evaluating the power of surface attendance counts to detect long-term trends in populations of crevice-nesting auklets

This study assessed metals in water and different tissues of Labeo rohita and the impact of these metals on DNA and proteins as biomarkers of gills and muscles of these fish from three different polluted sites (reference or low = KW, medium = CH and high = SK) of the Indus River, Pakistan. The Mn, Pb, Cu, Zn, Hg, and Cr levels in water, gills, liver, muscles, and skin of these fish were compared with the international permissible levels. All metals except Pb and Hg in water were within the acceptable limits of drinking water. In contrast, the Mn, Hg, and Cr levels in the fish tissues were higher than their permissible limits for fish as a human food. Here, the gills contained higher metals than the other tissues. Different patterns of biomarkers were found in fish from these sites. While the gills did not show four protein bands (55, 30, 18.4, and 16.4 kDa), the muscles showed four new protein bands (100, 85, 45, and 20 kDa) for fish from the medium and high polluted sites as compared to the reference or low polluted site. The fish from the CH and SK sites of the Indus River contained low molecular weight DNA in their gills but high molecular weight DNA in their muscles when compared with the KW site. This study suggests that the proteins and DNA profiles of L. rohita could be used as biomarkers to assess the impact of potential environmental stressors such as metals on the freshwater systems.     

Temporal limits to simulating the future spread pattern of invasive species: Buddleja davidii in Europe and New Zealand

The spread of invasive species is a major ecological and economic problem. Dynamic spread modelling is a potentially valuable tool to assist regional and central government authorities to monitor and control invasive species. To date a lack of suitable data has meant that most broad scale dispersal models have not been validated with independent datasets, and so their predictive ability and reliability has remained unscrutinised. A dynamic, stochastic dispersal model of the widely invasive plant Buddleja davidii was calibrated on European spread data and then used to project the temporal progression of B. davidii's distribution in New Zealand, starting from several different historical distributions. To assess the model's performance, we constructed an occupancy map based on the average number of simulation realisations that have a population present. The application of Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves to occupancy maps is introduced, but with specificity substituted by the proportion of available area used in a realisation. A derivative measure, the partial area under these curves when assessed through time (pAUC), is introduced and used to assess overall performance of the spread model. The model was able to attain a high level of model sensitivity, encompassing all of the known locations within the occupancy envelope. However, attempting to simulate the spread of this invasive species beyond a decade had very low model specificity. This is due to several factors, including the exponential process of spread (the further a population spreads the more sites exist from which it can spread stochastically), and the Markovian chain property of the stochastic system whereby differences between realisations compound through time. These features are seen in many reports of spread models, without being explicitly acknowledged. Our measure of pAUC through time allows a model's temporal performance and its specificity to be simultaneously assessed. While the rapid deterioration in model performance limits the utility of this type of modelling for forecasting long-term broad-scale strategic management of biological invasions, it does not necessarily limit its attractiveness for informing smaller scale and shorter term invasion management activities such as surveillance, containment and local eradication.     

Differences in morphology and habitat use among the native mussel <Emphasis Type="Italic">Mytilus trossulus</Emphasis>, the non-native <Emphasis Type="Italic">M. galloprovincialis,</Emphasis> and their hybrids in Puget Sound,Washington

Mytilus galloprovincialis (Mg), the Mediterranean blue mussel, is sympatric with the native M. trossulus (Mt) throughout much of the north Pacific, likely as the result of human introduction. We investigated the distribution of the two species and their hybrids (Mgt) in Puget Sound, Washington, to determine whether differences occur in habitat preference between the two species and hybrids. In addition, we investigated whether there were consistent size and shape differences between the native and introduced mussels and hybrids. Measurements of over 6,000 mussels from 30 sites, of which 1,460 were genotyped for a species-specific genetic marker, revealed that Mg and Mgt can be found throughout Puget Sound. Mg and Mgt were larger and exhibited a greater height:length ratio than Mt. Frequencies of Mg and Mgt were higher in subtidal habitats, such as docks, than on intertidal rocks, walls or pilings. Within intertidal habitats, Mg and Mgt were more frequent than Mt in the lower reaches of the intertidal. At slightly more than half the sites the frequency of the three genotypes accorded with random mating expectations suggesting no consistent barriers to gene flow between species. The standardized random sampling methods and simple morphometric identification techniques described here can be used to test whether the frequency of invasive mussels changes over time and space in Puget Sound.     

Driver Injury Risk Variability in Finite Element Reconstructions of Crash Injury Research and Engineering Network (CIREN) Frontal Motor Vehicle Crashes

Objective: A 3-phase real-world motor vehicle crash (MVC) reconstruction method was developed to analyze injury variability as a function of precrash occupant position for 2 full-frontal Crash Injury Research and Engineering Network (CIREN) cases.

Method: Phase I: A finite element (FE) simplified vehicle model (SVM) was developed and tuned to mimic the frontal crash characteristics of the CIREN case vehicle (Camry or Cobalt) using frontal New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) crash test data. Phase II: The Toyota HUman Model for Safety (THUMS) v4.01 was positioned in 120 precrash configurations per case within the SVM. Five occupant positioning variables were varied using a Latin hypercube design of experiments: seat track position, seat back angle, D-ring height, steering column angle, and steering column telescoping position. An additional baseline simulation was performed that aimed to match the precrash occupant position documented in CIREN for each case. Phase III: FE simulations were then performed using kinematic boundary conditions from each vehicle's event data recorder (EDR). HIC15, combined thoracic index (CTI), femur forces, and strain-based injury metrics in the lung and lumbar vertebrae were evaluated to predict injury.

Results: Tuning the SVM to specific vehicle models resulted in close matches between simulated and test injury metric data, allowing the tuned SVM to be used in each case reconstruction with EDR-derived boundary conditions. Simulations with the most rearward seats and reclined seat backs had the greatest HIC15, head injury risk, CTI, and chest injury risk. Calculated injury risks for the head, chest, and femur closely correlated to the CIREN occupant injury patterns. CTI in the Camry case yielded a 54% probability of Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) 2+ chest injury in the baseline case simulation and ranged from 34 to 88% (mean = 61%) risk in the least and most dangerous occupant positions. The greater than 50% probability was consistent with the case occupant's AIS 2 hemomediastinum. Stress-based metrics were used to predict injury to the lower leg of the Camry case occupant. The regional-level injury metrics evaluated for the Cobalt case occupant indicated a low risk of injury; however, strain-based injury metrics better predicted pulmonary contusion. Approximately 49% of the Cobalt occupant's left lung was contused, though the baseline simulation predicted 40.5% of the lung to be injured.

Conclusions: A method to compute injury metrics and risks as functions of precrash occupant position was developed and applied to 2 CIREN MVC FE reconstructions. The reconstruction process allows for quantification of the sensitivity and uncertainty of the injury risk predictions based on occupant position to further understand important factors that lead to more severe MVC injuries.     

Change in Fish Fauna as Indication of Aquatic Ecosystem Condition in Río Grande de Morelia–Lago de Cuitzeo Basin, Mexico

Chirostoma charari and C. compressum, and they are presumed extinct. Twelve (63%) of the remaining species had declines in distribution. Sixteen (80%) of the 20 localities sampled had lost species. The greatest declines occurred in Lago de Cuitzeo proper and in the lower portion of the Río Grande de Morelia watershed. Species losses from the lake were attributable to drying and hypereutrophication of the lake because of substantial reductions in the amount and quality of tributary inputs, whereas losses from the Río Grande de Morelia watershed were the result of pollution from agricultural, municipal, and industrial sources, especially in the region around the city of Morelia. Three localities in the upper portion of the Río Grande de Morelia watershed—Cointzio reservoir, La Mintzita spring, and Insurgente Morelos stream—contained most of the remaining fish species diversity in the basin and deserve additional protection. Fish faunal changes indicated major declines in the health of aquatic ecosystems in the Morelia–Cuitzeo basin.     

A multidecadal oscillation in precipitation and temperature series is pronounced in low flow series from Puget Sound streams

In Pacific Northwest streams, summer low flows limit water available to competing instream (salmon) and out-of-stream (human) uses, creating broad interest in how and why low flows are trending. Analyses that assumed linear (monotonic) change over the last ~60 years revealed declining low flow trends in minimally disturbed streams. Here, polynomials were used to model flow trends between 1929 and 2015. A multidecadal oscillation was observed in flows, which increased initially from the 1930s until the 1950s, declined until the 1990s, and then increased again. A similar oscillation was detected in precipitation series, and opposing oscillations in surface temperature, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation series. Multidecadal oscillations with similar periods to those described here are well known in climate indices. Fitted model terms were consistent with flow trends being influenced by at least two drivers, one oscillating and the other monotonic. Anthropogenic warming is a candidate driver for the monotonic decline, and variation in (internal) climatic circulation for the oscillating trend, but others were not ruled out. The recent upturn in streamflows suggests that anthropogenic warming has not been the dominant factor driving streamflow trends, at least until 2015. Climate projections based on simulations that omit drivers of multidecadal variation are likely to underestimate the range, and rate of change, of future climatic variation.     

Park isolation in anthropogenic landscapes: land change and livelihoods at park boundaries in the African Albertine Rift

Regional Environmental Change - Landscapes are changing rapidly in regions where rural people live adjacent to protected parks and reserves. This is the case in highland East Africa, where many...     

Water quality of runoff from revegetated mine spoil

Permanent vegetation plots were established on mixed overburden and topsoiled overburden on a lignite test pit in eastern Texas in 1982. Vegetative treatments included two grass-legume treatments [switchgrass (panicum virgattun) — sideoats grama (Bouteloua curtipendula) — subterrancan elover (Trifolitun subterranean) and litte bluestem (Schizachyriun scoparium) — sideoats grama (Bouteloua curtipendula) — Illinois hundleflower (Dessmanthus illinoiensis)] and three monocultures [Coastal bermudagrass (Cynodon dactylon), bahia grass (paspalum notatum) and yellow Indiangrass (Sorghastrum nutans)]. Water was applied to the 0.5m² plots using a sprinklertype rainfall simulator and quality of runoff was determined for each plot. Parameters analyzed included: settleable solids, total filterable solids, sediment production, infiltration rate, nitrites, nitrates, total iron and total manganese. Topsoiling significantly increased inliltration and significantly decreased filterable sediments, sediment production and settleable solids. The hydrologie qualities of the switchgrass-sideoats grama-subterranean elover mixture coincided closely with those of the Coastal bermudagrass monoculture.Authors are presently graduate research assistant and assistant professor. Range Science Department. Texas A&M University. College Station, Texas 77843. Acknowledgement is given to Northwestern Resources Co. for providing the funding for this project.     

Fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH): A new application in the delineation of true vs. pseudomosaicism in prenatal diagnosis

Metaphase chromosomes and interphase nuclei from nine amniotic fluid cultures were studied with fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH). The samples were initially analyzed with routine G-banding and were diagnosed as having true mosaicism (five patients) or pseudomosaicism (four patients). In our study, FISH analysis could provide additional information to distinguish pseudo– from true mosaicism by allowing interphase studies and analysis of an increased number of metaphase spreads. These results suggest a multilinear origin of ‘in situ’ colonies of cells.